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China Aviation Titanium Industry Development Overview And Market Demand Status Analysis
Sep 11, 2018

1. China's aviation industry is developing rapidly, and high-end titanium materials are welcoming the demand dividend period.

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Titanium processing is a typical downstream industry upgrade driving market demand. At present, high-end titanium alloys are mainly used in military and aerospace industries. According to statistics, in 2016, global aviation titanium accounted for about half of the total titanium consumption, and the United States, Russia and other countries accounted for more than 70% of aviation titanium, while China's ratio is only 20%. China's aviation titanium has just started. With the replacement of China's aviation equipment in recent years, key breakthroughs have been made in the field of civil aircraft manufacturing, and aviation titanium will usher in considerable incremental demand. We estimate that China's high-end aerospace titanium will generate three years of incremental space, and the long-term market scale is expected to break through 10 billion yuan per year.


At present, the proportion of titanium in the world's advanced fighter aircraft has exceeded 40%, and the amount of titanium alloy in the F-22 single-frame machine is as high as 8.08 tons; the titanium content of the Airbus A380 and Boeing B787 in the civil aviation field is 10% and 15% respectively. The A380 uses more than 28 tons of titanium. The newly developed medium- and short-range trunk aircraft MS-21 in Russia has a titanium content of 25%, which is expected to become the highest civil aircraft model.


According to the titanium situation of the international comparable aircraft body, we estimate that the quality of titanium alloys in the new generation of transport aircraft and the new generation fighter aircraft that will be in large-scale service in China is expected to reach 20% and 40% respectively, corresponding to 12 tons/frame and 6.8 tons/frame. The amount of titanium used in a single machine. In addition, according to the data, China's commercial regional passenger aircraft ARJ21 titanium alloy dosage is 4.8%, commercial trunk passenger aircraft C919 titanium alloy dosage is 9.3%, corresponding to single-frame titanium material demand of about 1.2 tons and 3.92 tons. And we expect China's first long-range wide-body aircraft to produce up to 25 tons / frame of titanium demand.


In addition, we expect the localization of aero-engines to correspond to a huge incremental market for aerospace high-end titanium. According to China's requirements for “autonomic controllable” of military products, the localization of aviation is bound to be accompanied by a large number of high-performance titanium alloys. According to the general titanium level of foreign aviation engines, we roughly estimate that the amount of titanium used in a single WS-10 engine is about 2 tons, which corresponds to the demand for a new double-engine fighter with about 4 tons of titanium.


According to China's current military and civilian aircraft manufacturing level and development status, we expect that during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, China's aviation titanium demand will be the most conservative annual demand will reach 10,000 tons, corresponding to the annual market size of about 3 billion to 4 billion yuan, about the present At least twice; in the medium and long term, the average annual market size of China's aviation titanium materials is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan. In addition, equipment upgrades in other fields such as aerospace and ships will also generate a large number of high-end titanium materials. Taking into account the above-mentioned market, it is optimistic that the market space for high-end titanium materials will exceed 10 billion yuan per year in the next three years, corresponding to the average annual compound. The growth rate is over 56%, and the average annual market size in 10-20 years is expected to exceed 30 billion yuan.


The development technology of military high-end titanium materials is a military secret, and there are strict import and export restrictions in the international arena. China's military high-end titanium market is completely derived from the independent research and development of domestic enterprises. At present, almost all aviation titanium materials used in military aircraft come from Baoti Titanium, Western Superconductor and Western Materials. Baoji Dingding Titanium Products Co., Ltd. mainly deals in titanium alloy products and has a place in the aviation field. At present, it has been skilled in the standards of AMS4911, GJB1538A, AMS4928, GJB2218A GJB2744, etc. In view of the existence of a certain period of time in the military supporting approval process, we expect that in the short term The industry will have difficulty in competing for three of them. Therefore, as a trend in the industry, there is huge room for growth in the titanium market for aviation.


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